{"id":7058,"date":"2022-06-15T08:26:47","date_gmt":"2022-06-15T06:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=7058"},"modified":"2022-06-15T08:26:48","modified_gmt":"2022-06-15T06:26:48","slug":"vague-de-chaleur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2022\/06\/15\/vague-de-chaleur\/","title":{"rendered":"Vague de chaleur"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

La temp\u00e9rature d\u00e9passera nettement les 30\u00b0 vendredi et samedi en Ile-de-France. Elle pourrait m\u00eame \u00eatre nettement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e sur la France, comme le montre par exemple cette image prospective<\/a>, sur laquelle on voit des temp\u00e9ratures atteignant 40\u00b0 en Ile de France :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dans une s\u00e9rie de tweets <\/a>publi\u00e9s le 12 juin, Christophe Cassou<\/a>, climatologue, directeur de recherche au CNRS et l\u2019un des principaux auteurs du 6e<\/sup> rapport du GIEC, explique cette vague de chaleur par la combinaison d\u2019une \u00ab plume de chaleur \u00bb venue du Maghreb et d\u2019une \u00ab goutte froide \u00bb au large de la p\u00e9ninsule ib\u00e9rique qui pousse cette \u00ab plume de chaleur \u00bb vers le nord. Des explications d\u00e9taill\u00e9es ici<\/a> et ici<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le chercheur explique que le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne \u00ab plume de chaleur \u00bb est un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dynamique, contrairement au ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne \u00ab d\u00f4me de chaleur \u00bb qui est plus statique\u2026et donc plus durable. Le plus probable est donc que cette vague de chaleur ne dure pas, des orages venant faire baisser la temp\u00e9rature en fin de semaine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entretemps, des records de chaleur pour un mois de juin auront tr\u00e8s probablement \u00e9t\u00e9 battus sur une partie de la France. La carte suivante montre une tr\u00e8s grande probabilit\u00e9 de records de chaleur sur une moiti\u00e9 ouest de la France, en particulier en Bretagne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Le climatologue resitue cet \u00e9pisode dans l\u2019\u00e9volution des \u00e9pisodes caniculaires en France, \u00e0 partir des conclusions du 6e<\/sup> rapport du GIEC (dont il est un des auteurs, il faut suivre !). Ces \u00e9pisodes sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 en augmentation : 23 \u00e9pisodes de canicule ont \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9s sur les 21 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es [2000-2021] contre seulement 17 en 53 ans sur 1947-1999, c<\/em>omme le montre le graphique suivant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Il pr\u00e9vient aussi : \u00ab Il est quasiment certain que l’augmentation de l’intensit\u00e9 et de la fr\u00e9quence des extr\u00eames de chaleur et la diminution de l’intensit\u00e9 et de la fr\u00e9quence des extr\u00eames de froid se poursuivront tout au long du 21e si\u00e8cle et dans le monde entier. \u00bb <\/em>Nous allons conna\u00eetre des \u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0 50\u00b0 en France<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Chaque tonne de CO\u2082 compte, car c’est le cumul de CO\u2082 qui d\u00e9termine le niveau de r\u00e9chauffement. Chaque incr\u00e9ment de degr\u00e9 compte, car il y a une relation directe r\u00e9chauffement-\u00e9v\u00e9nement extr\u00eame puis risque.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nous vivons un avant-go\u00fbt de notre futur climatique. Pour que l’exceptionnel ne devienne pas la norme, il faut r\u00e9duire nos \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre de mani\u00e8re imm\u00e9diate, soutenue dans le temps et dans tous les secteurs. Pas dans 3 ans, maintenant ! \u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feux de for\u00eat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Il y a moins d\u2019un an, la Gazette de Sceaux publiait un article<\/a> sur les feux de for\u00eat et les records de chaleur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le 13 juin, la pr\u00e9f\u00e8te du Gard informe<\/a> qu\u2019un incendie dans un camping mobilise d\u00e9j\u00e0 100 pompiers. Au m\u00eame moment, mais plus loin, un internaute filme depuis une autoroute une intervention de canadair : l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019est pas encore l\u00e0, mais les feux le sont d\u00e9j\u00e0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quelques commentaires<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le GIEC a \u00e9t\u00e9 fond\u00e9 en 1988, il y a donc 34 ans. On peut s\u2019inqui\u00e9ter du fait que ses alertes ne semblent gu\u00e8re entendues de la population comme des d\u00e9cideurs. Regardons plut\u00f4t le verre \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 plein et notons que la prise de conscience progresse. Les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effets de serre baissent en France<\/a> et en Europe. La Finlande, qui vient de d\u00e9marrer son premier EPR (les \u00e9cologistes locaux se sont ralli\u00e9s au nucl\u00e9aire), vise maintenant 2035<\/a> pour atteindre le \u00ab\u00a0z\u00e9ro \u00e9mission de CO2\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans notre commune, ZEN2050 Maintenant<\/a><\/em> constate que sa proposition de balades thermiques <\/a>attire bien des participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019\u00e9pisode caniculaire qui va arriver nous invite \u00e0 nous adapter, \u00e0 nous pr\u00e9parer au changement climatique en cours. Comment ? On y reviendra ; notons d\u00e9j\u00e0 que bien isoler son logement, c\u2019est utile \u00e0 la fois pour limiter les \u00e9missions de GES et pour se prot\u00e9ger des canicules !<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La temp\u00e9rature d\u00e9passera nettement les 30\u00b0 vendredi et samedi en Ile-de-France. 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