{"id":6530,"date":"2022-04-21T09:41:07","date_gmt":"2022-04-21T07:41:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=6530"},"modified":"2022-04-21T10:17:20","modified_gmt":"2022-04-21T08:17:20","slug":"analyse-des-resultats-locaux-du-premier-tour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2022\/04\/21\/analyse-des-resultats-locaux-du-premier-tour\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyse des r\u00e9sultats locaux du premier tour"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Les inscrits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Premi\u00e8re surprise le matin du 10 avril en arrivant \u00e0 mon bureau de vote, en constatant une baisse du nombre d\u2019inscrits entre 2017 et 2022. Le soir m\u00eame, j\u2019ai constat\u00e9 que c\u2019\u00e9tait le cas dans tous les bureaux de vote de la ville, les moins touch\u00e9s \u00e9tant le BV 14 (Ecole mat du Clos Saint-Marcel) avec seulement 3 inscrits de moins et le BV 10 (Locaux d\u2019activit\u00e9) avec une perte de 8 inscrits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sur l\u2019ensemble de la ville, la baisse est de 786 inscrits, soit 5,2%. A comparer aux \u00e9volutions du nombre d\u2019inscrits ailleurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
France enti\u00e8re : + 1 165 693 (2,4%)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
On peut se demander quelle est la proportion de non-inscrits. La France comptait au 1er<\/sup> janvier 67,8 millions d\u2019habitants dont 15,4 de moins de 18 ans, soit 52,8 millions d\u2019habitants, tous n\u2019ayant pas la nationalit\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise. Sur les 5,1 millions \u00e9trangers habitants en France, on peut supposer compter environ 1 million de moins de 18 ans, soit 4,1 millions \u00e0 d\u00e9compter des 52,8 millions pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents, ce qui donne un solde de 48,7 millions. Si on y ajoute les 1,4 million de Fran\u00e7ais inscrits hors de France, on trouve 50,1 millions de personnes qui devraient \u00eatre inscrites sur les listes \u00e9lectorales. On en compte 48,7, ce qui ferait 1,4 million de non-inscrits, ou 3% de la population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
L\u2019abstention <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A Sceaux, si le recul de la participation est assez limit\u00e9, il est particuli\u00e8rement important(-6,6%) dans le bureau 7 (qui correspond \u00e0 la r\u00e9sidence des Bas-Coudrais) o\u00f9 il \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 faible en 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Les blancs et nuls<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Deux villes de la circonscription se permettent de publier des r\u00e9sultats ne les distinguant pas, ce qui n\u2019est pas conforme au Code \u00e9lectoral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Au niveau national, on compte 543.609 blancs, soit 1,12 % des votants et 247.151 nuls, soit 0,51 %. C\u2019est en baisse par rapport \u00e0 2017 o\u00f9 on en comptait respectivement 1,39 % et 0,61 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Les blancs d\u00e9passent les 2% \u00e0 Ch\u00e2tenay-Malabry (qui ne compte pas de nuls).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Les votes par ville<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
R\u00e9sultats 2022 en pourcentage<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Macron est localement tr\u00e8s au-dessus de son score national (+9,26 % sur la circonscription). M\u00e9lenchon est aussi nettement au-dessus de sa moyenne nationale, sauf \u00e0 Sceaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Le Pen est tr\u00e8s en dessous de son score national, et m\u00eame sous son score francilien, pourtant d\u00e9j\u00e0 tr\u00e8s bas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jadot et Hidalgo sont un peu au-dessus de leur score national.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Les \u00e9volutions en pourcentage par ville<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Les \u00e9volutions sont ici en pourcentage, entre 2017 et 2022, pour les trois principaux candidats (pr\u00e9sents en 2017 et en 2022) et pour l\u2019ensemble Jadot+ Hidalgo compar\u00e9 au score de Hamon en 2017<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Gains \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour M\u00e9lenchon, alors que Macron progresse localement moins qu\u2019en France, et recule m\u00eame \u00e0 Fontenay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c9volutions en voix \u00e0 Sceaux par bureau de vote<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Par rapport \u00e0 2017, les diff\u00e9rentiels de voix sont les suivants: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
A Sceaux, les \u00e9volutions sont variables d\u2019un bureau \u00e0 l\u2019autre. Macron recule dans 4 bureaux : les BV 6,7,11 et 13. Le Pen recule dans bureaux : les BV 6,7 et 11. M\u00e9lenchon progresse partout, mais particuli\u00e8rement dans les bureaux 8 et 10. Jadot + Hidalgo progressent par rapport au vote Hamon, sauf dans le bureau 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
A Bourg-la Reine, Macron recule en voix dans 8 bureaux sur 14. Le Pen recule dans 2 bureaux. M\u00e9lenchon progresse partout, et particuli\u00e8rement dans les BV 5, 7, 8, 11, 12 et 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Le vote Zemmour<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Alors que, sur Sceaux, les supporters de Marine Le Pen \u00e9taient absents des distributions de tract puis des bureaux de vote, ceux d\u2019\u00c9ric Zemmour \u00e9taient au contraire tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9sents. Le r\u00e9sultat n\u2019est pour autant gu\u00e8re convainquant : \u00e0 Sceaux, Zemmour fait \u00e0 peine plus qu\u2019au niveau national, et il est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement en dessous sur la circonscription. On n\u2019est pas \u00e0 Versailles (o\u00f9 il atteint 18,48 % des voix)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Antony : 6,96%<\/li>
Bourg-la-Reine : 7,09 %<\/li>
Ch\u00e2tenay-Malabry : 5,90 %<\/li>
Sceaux : 7,89 %<\/li>
13\u00e8me<\/sup> circonscription : 6,90 %<\/li>
Hauts de Seine : 8,10 %<\/li>
Ile de France : 7,47 %<\/li>
France 7,07%<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Le vote P\u00e9cresse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Antony : 8,55%<\/li>
Bourg-la-Reine : 9,34 %<\/li>
Ch\u00e2tenay-Malabry : 7 %<\/li>
Sceaux : 9,82 %<\/li>
13\u00e8me<\/sup> circonscription : 8,54 %<\/li>
Hauts de Seine : 8,03 %<\/li>
Ile de France : 6,19 %<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Les inscrits Premi\u00e8re surprise le matin du 10 avril en arrivant \u00e0 mon bureau de vote, en constatant une baisse du nombre d\u2019inscrits entre 2017 et 2022. Le soir m\u00eame, j\u2019ai constat\u00e9 que c\u2019\u00e9tait le cas dans tous les bureaux de vote de la ville, les moins touch\u00e9s \u00e9tant le…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":6407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-des-quartiers-de-sceaux","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\n
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