{"id":46481,"date":"2026-07-06T11:00:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T09:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=46481"},"modified":"2026-07-06T11:20:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T09:20:11","slug":"finances-municipales-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2026\/07\/06\/finances-municipales-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Finances municipales 3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pour avoir des finances saines, une collectivit\u00e9 doit avoir une \u00e9pargne brute suffisamment importante pour rembourser sa dette dans un d\u00e9lai raisonnable (premi\u00e8re partie<\/a>). Or cette \u00e9pargne a tendance \u00e0 diminuer, du fait d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements ext\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la commune (deuxi\u00e8me partie<\/a>). Cette troisi\u00e8me partie \u00e9voque pourquoi la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration des finances de l\u2019Etat pousse \u00e0 une augmentation des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et une diminution des subventions aux communes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La dette publique fran\u00e7aise et le risque de taux<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le graphique ci-dessous montre que la dette fran\u00e7aise, mesur\u00e9e en pourcentage du PIB, ne cesse d\u2019augmenter de crise en crise, les p\u00e9riodes entre les crises ne se traduisant pas par un d\u00e9sendettement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

En l\u2019absence de majorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale, on trouve des accords pour augmenter les recettes, mais aucun pour diminuer les d\u00e9penses. Le d\u00e9ficit annuel se maintient donc \u00e0 5% du PIB. Rien ne prouve que cela changera apr\u00e8s la pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2027. Avec, pour les communes, trois risques dont il est impossible d\u2019\u00e9valuer la probabilit\u00e9 : la diminution des dotations de l\u2019\u00c9tat (le plus probable) soit directement, soit au niveau des intercommunalit\u00e9s porteuses de subventions, l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019\u00e9cart de taux avec les pays les plus vertueux de la zone euro, et une d\u00e9fiance g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e des march\u00e9s se traduisant d\u2019abord par une tr\u00e8s forte augmentation des taux puis par l\u2019obligation de r\u00e9duire drastiquement les d\u00e9penses (voir l\u2019exemple grec). Il ne faut pas croire que cette derni\u00e8re situation est impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arr\u00eatons-nous un peu avec Fran\u00e7ois \u00c9cale sur l\u2019\u00e9volution des d\u00e9penses publiques<\/a> sur le long terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

De 1975 \u00e0 2024, le rapport des d\u00e9penses publiques au PIB a augment\u00e9 de 11 points. Sa hausse a \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement forte (8 points) de 1975 \u00e0 1985.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette augmentation de 11 points de PIB est due aux prestations sociales pour 8,4 points<\/strong>, aux subventions et autres transferts pour 2 points, \u00e0 la masse salariale des administrations publiques pour 0,6 point. Le poids des achats courants de biens et services n\u2019a quasiment pas vari\u00e9. Celui des investissements a baiss\u00e9 de 1 point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les d\u00e9penses publiques par fonction ne sont disponibles que de 1995 \u00e0 2023. Sur cette p\u00e9riode, le total des d\u00e9penses publiques primaires (hors int\u00e9r\u00eats de la dette) a augment\u00e9 de 2,5 points de PIB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les retraites y ont contribu\u00e9 pour 1,7 point et les d\u00e9penses de sant\u00e9 pour 1,8 point<\/strong>. Les d\u00e9penses affect\u00e9es \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 int\u00e9rieure (justice et forces de l\u2019ordre), \u00e0 la protection de l\u2019environnement, \u00e0 la lutte contre l\u2019exclusion et \u00e0 la culture et aux loisirs y ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 hauteur de 1,2 point au total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le co\u00fbt des \u00ab services g\u00e9n\u00e9raux \u00bb a diminu\u00e9 de 0,6 point et le budget militaire de 0,7 point. Les d\u00e9penses en faveur des familles ont baiss\u00e9 de 0,5 point et les d\u00e9penses d\u2019enseignement de 0,7 point<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, l\u2019augmentation continue de la part des retrait\u00e9s dans la population totale conduit \u00e0 un co\u00fbt \u00e9crasant des d\u00e9penses de retraite et de sant\u00e9. La forte augmentation de l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie depuis la guerre (pr\u00e8s de 20 ans !) est une bonne nouvelle, mais les Fran\u00e7ais refusent d\u2019en tirer les cons\u00e9quences, en premier lieu pour l\u2019\u00e2ge de la retraite et en second pour le montant des pensions. Ce sont d\u2019abord les actifs (et les entreprises) et les familles (et la natalit\u00e9) qui en paient les cons\u00e9quences. Ce sont aussi et ce seront demain toutes les autres d\u00e9penses publiques, y compris celles des collectivit\u00e9s locales, qui passent apr\u00e8s les d\u00e9penses de retraite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charges qui augmentent automatiquement, recettes qui diminuent et continueront \u00e0 le faire, taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en hausse, impr\u00e9vus qui risquent d\u2019\u00eatre plus fr\u00e9quents, croissance atone qui ne permet plus d\u2019augmenter les recettes, \u00c9tat endett\u00e9 qui r\u00e9duit les subventions, l\u2019avenir financier des collectivit\u00e9s locales n\u2019est pas rose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La seule conclusion raisonnable pour celles-ci est de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir, non plus \u00e0 rendre plus de services, mais peut-\u00eatre bien \u00e0 en rendre moins. A se demander si tout ce qui est fait a une utilit\u00e9 \u00e0 la hauteur de la d\u00e9pense g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lire sur la Gazette :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finances 1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finances 2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pour avoir des finances saines, une collectivit\u00e9 doit avoir une \u00e9pargne brute suffisamment importante pour rembourser sa dette dans un d\u00e9lai raisonnable (premi\u00e8re partie). Or cette \u00e9pargne a tendance \u00e0 diminuer, du fait d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements ext\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la commune (deuxi\u00e8me partie). Cette troisi\u00e8me partie \u00e9voque pourquoi la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration des finances de…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":46191,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,265,263,264,270,266],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-bourg-la-reine","category-chatenay-malabry","category-fontenay-aux-roses","category-projets-politiques","category-sceaux","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nFinances municipales 3 - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2026\/07\/06\/finances-municipales-3\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Finances municipales 3 - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pour avoir des finances saines, une collectivit\u00e9 doit avoir une \u00e9pargne brute suffisamment importante pour rembourser sa dette dans un d\u00e9lai raisonnable (premi\u00e8re partie). 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