{"id":46115,"date":"2026-05-19T08:31:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T06:31:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=46115"},"modified":"2026-05-19T08:31:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T06:31:07","slug":"guerre-et-securite-energetique-europeenne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2026\/05\/19\/guerre-et-securite-energetique-europeenne\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerre et s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9enne"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Mercredi 12 mai, Les conf\u00e9rences de Bourg-la-Reine<\/em> proposaient de passionnantes analyses des impacts des guerres sur \u00a0notre s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. La conf\u00e9renci\u00e8re, Anastasiya Shapochkina<\/a>, sp\u00e9cialiste de g\u00e9opolitique du think tank Eastern Circles<\/a><\/em>, abordait sept id\u00e9es re\u00e7ues sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe, .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La guerre en Ukraine a rompu les liens \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques avec la Russie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Si les exportations de gaz ont diminu\u00e9, elles sont tr\u00e8s loin d\u2019avoir disparu : l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne re\u00e7oit encore un tiers du gaz export\u00e9 par la Russie par gazoduc et la moiti\u00e9 de celui export\u00e9 par GNL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la guerre en Ukraine, la Russie s\u2019est servie du gaz pour faire pression sur ses partenaires europ\u00e9ens et en premier lieu l\u2019Allemagne. A 4 mois de l\u2019hiver, ce pays voyait l\u2019alimentation en gaz russe coup\u00e9e. La solution alternative consistait \u00e0 importer du gaz naturel liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 (GNL) en provenance des USA ou d\u2019ailleurs, mais il fallait construire de nouvelles infrastructures, soit un d\u00e9lai estim\u00e9 \u00e0 4 ans. Devant l\u2019urgence, le pays a r\u00e9agi et les infrastructures ont \u00e9t\u00e9 construites en 2 mois seulement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2026, ce sont dans l\u2019ordre la France, la Belgique et l\u2019Espagne qui importent le plus de gaz et de p\u00e9trole russe (sans compter les op\u00e9rations des 47 navires de la flotte fant\u00f4me russe). En 2026, avant les \u00e9v\u00e9nements du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 des exportations de p\u00e9trole russe sont \u00e0 destination de l\u2019Europe. Depuis ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements, les revenus russes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 boost\u00e9s. Ils ont presque doubl\u00e9 par rapport au d\u00e9but 2022, avant l\u2019invasion de l\u2019Ukraine, alors qu\u2019ils \u00e9taient descendus en dessous des 2\/3 de leur volume ant\u00e9rieur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le gaz russe est moins cher<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cette affirmation est \u00e0 nuancer largement : par exemple, le gaz russe est plus cher que le GNL croate, \u00e0 cause du transit. Ce moindre co\u00fbt suppos\u00e9 ne peut donc justifier de ne pas accorder d\u2019importance \u00e0 la menace russe aujourd\u2019hui et pour les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir (voir la Revue Nationale strat\u00e9gique<\/a> de 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Depuis 2010, la strat\u00e9gie des entreprises gazi\u00e8res russes a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u2019augmenter leurs parts de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La r\u00e9ponse est dans la diversification des importations, surtout si l\u2019\u00e9nergie vient des alli\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cette solution est devenue al\u00e9atoire depuis la r\u00e9\u00e9lection de Trump. Les USA sont devenus un risque g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un autre fournisseur important, le Quatar voit aujourd\u2019hui ses exportations bloqu\u00e9es par la guerre et une partie de ses infrastructures sont \u00e0 reconstruire ou r\u00e9parer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nous devons consommer moins (et sauver la plan\u00e8te en passant)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La strat\u00e9gie de l\u2019UE a \u00e9t\u00e9 revue en 2022 et un objectif de r\u00e9duction de 10% de la consommation a \u00e9t\u00e9 affich\u00e9. Le r\u00e9sultat a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 l\u2019objectif avec une baisse de 15%, venue de tous les secteurs. Cependant, cette politique peut entra\u00eener des cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9gatives. Par exemple, l\u2019Allemagne a demand\u00e9 aux plus gros industriels de baisser leur consommation, ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait. Mais le risque est que les usines soient ferm\u00e9es et rouvertes ailleurs, avec ce que cela signifie comme cons\u00e9quences sociales et \u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le nucl\u00e9aire apporte une v\u00e9ritable s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La conf\u00e9renci\u00e8re parle ici, comme pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, de l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019Europe et pas seulement de la situation fran\u00e7aise. Les anciens pays de l\u2019Est poss\u00e8dent des r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires construits selon une technologie sovi\u00e9tique, avec un fournisseur russe pour beaucoup d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments de la cha\u00eene de valeur : Rosatom<\/a>. La conf\u00e9renci\u00e8re a montr\u00e9, \u00e9l\u00e9ment pas \u00e9l\u00e9ment, que l\u2019Europe est interd\u00e9pendante de la Russie pour toute la cha\u00eene de valeur, depuis l\u2019enrichissement du combustible jusqu\u2019\u00e0 le traitement des d\u00e9chets. Pour la Slovaquie, la Hongrie ou d\u2019autres pays, le fournisseur normal est Rosatom. Pour se positionner comme fournisseur alternatif, Framatome a choisi de prendre une licence Rosatom. Westinghouse travaille actuellement avec l\u2019Ukraine pour fournir un combustible utilisable (l\u2019op\u00e9ration a r\u00e9ussi) et va maintenant se tourner vers d\u2019autres clients potentiels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les Russes sont aujourd\u2019hui les plus grands exportateurs pour la construction de centrale (et ce seront sans doute les Chinois demain).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les \u00e9nergies renouvelables sont la cl\u00e9 de la souverainet\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les 10 plus grands producteurs de panneaux photovolta\u00efques dans le monde sont chinois et indiens. C\u2019est le r\u00e9sultat d\u2019une politique de subvention des producteurs chinois qui a tu\u00e9 les concurrents occidentaux ? Aujourd\u2019hui, pour certains composants cl\u00e9s, la Chine a 100% du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La voiture \u00e9lectrique va nous sauver (et la plan\u00e8te aussi)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On retrouve ici aussi la Chine comme principal producteur, dominant la cha\u00eene de valeur dans certains composants, en particulier les batteries. Un probl\u00e8me aigu en cas de conflit : impossibilit\u00e9 d\u2019acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des composants indispensables, impossibilit\u00e9 d\u2019utiliser des outils de production faciles \u00e0 transformer pour du mat\u00e9riel militaire (voitures par exemple).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Questions r\u00e9ponses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les questions de la salle (plus d\u2019une cinquantaine de pr\u00e9sents) ont port\u00e9 notamment sur le nucl\u00e9aire et les \u00e9nergies fossiles. La pr\u00e9sence dans la salle de bons connaisseurs de ces sujets a permis des \u00e9changes de qualit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sur le prix du nucl\u00e9aire, la conf\u00e9renci\u00e8re a fait remarquer que la Chine b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiait de fortes \u00e9conomies d\u2019\u00e9chelles lui donnant un net avantage prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A une question sur le moment o\u00f9 il n\u2019y aura plus de p\u00e9trole et de gaz, la r\u00e9ponse est venue de la salle : l\u2019estimation des r\u00e9serves se fait \u00e0 un niveau technologique et un prix donn\u00e9. Au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 70, les r\u00e9serves de p\u00e9trole \u00e9taient estim\u00e9es \u00e0 30 ans. La consommation a augment\u00e9 depuis, mais 50 ans apr\u00e8s, il y a toujours des r\u00e9serves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mercredi 12 mai, Les conf\u00e9rences de Bourg-la-Reine proposaient de passionnantes analyses des impacts des guerres sur \u00a0notre s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. La conf\u00e9renci\u00e8re, Anastasiya Shapochkina, sp\u00e9cialiste de g\u00e9opolitique du think tank Eastern Circles, abordait sept id\u00e9es re\u00e7ues sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe, . La guerre en Ukraine a rompu les liens…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":46117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[265,272,240],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bourg-la-reine","category-conferences-2","category-securite","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nGuerre et s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9enne - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2026\/05\/19\/guerre-et-securite-energetique-europeenne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guerre et s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9enne - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mercredi 12 mai, Les conf\u00e9rences de Bourg-la-Reine proposaient de passionnantes analyses des impacts des guerres sur \u00a0notre s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. 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