{"id":3852,"date":"2021-04-26T10:00:01","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T08:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=3852"},"modified":"2021-04-26T10:00:03","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T08:00:03","slug":"la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/","title":{"rendered":"La calculatrice vaporeuse de Jean-Michel Blanquer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Jeudi 22, le Premier ministre donnait une conf\u00e9rence de presse centr\u00e9e sur le confinement et sa sortie. Veran, Darmanin et Blanquer sont aussi intervenus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le ministre de l\u2019\u00c9ducation nationale a expliqu\u00e9 que de tr\u00e8s nombreux tests salivaires seraient mis \u00e0 la disposition des \u00e9tablissements et que les classes seraient ferm\u00e9es au premier cas. Contrairement \u00e0 la situation observ\u00e9e en mars, o\u00f9 des classes sont rest\u00e9es ouvertes avec plusieurs cas, avant qu\u2019on ne d\u00e9cide de les fermer au premier cas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grand partisan assum\u00e9 de ne pas fermer les \u00e9tablissements scolaires malgr\u00e9 la pand\u00e9mie, il a justifi\u00e9 cette mesure en expliquant \u00ab&nbsp;qu\u2019il valait mieux fermer 1% des \u00e9coles que toutes&nbsp;\u00bb. Ce qui est une lapalissade, mais conduit l\u2019auditeur \u00e0 se demander d\u2019o\u00f9 sort ce \u00ab&nbsp;1%&nbsp;\u00bb&nbsp;?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fin mars 2021, l\u2019incidence Covid chez les jeunes des 10 \u00e0 19 ans, \u00e9tait <a href=\"https:\/\/covidtracker.fr\/covidtracker-france\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mesur\u00e9e<\/a> \u00e0 570 cas par semaine pour 100&nbsp;000 habitants, au m\u00eame niveau que celle des 20 \u00e0 29 ans. Depuis, elle a baiss\u00e9 beaucoup plus que celle des 20 \u00e0 29 ans, mais <a href=\"https:\/\/www.santepubliquefrance.fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sant\u00e9 publique France<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-admin\/post-new.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">observe<\/a> que cela s\u2019explique tr\u00e8s probablement par une forte baisse des tests pour cette tranche d\u2019\u00e2ge, en raison des vacances scolaires. Il est donc probable qu\u2019elle est encore autour de 500 cas par semaine, toujours mesur\u00e9e. L\u2019incidence r\u00e9elle est estim\u00e9e au double de celle qui est mesur\u00e9e, selon les \u00e9tudes de l\u2019Institut Pasteur. Ce qui nous conduit \u00e0 une incidence de 1% par semaine. Comme on peut imaginer que les classes o\u00f9 il y a un \u00e9l\u00e8ve atteint seront ferm\u00e9es pour au moins une semaine, on tient, semble-t-il, une explication pour le 1% du ministre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sauf que non. Car les classes ont chacune plusieurs \u00e9l\u00e8ves (on esp\u00e8re que le ministre ne l\u2019ignore pas \ud83d\ude0a) et en moyenne un peu plus de 20. Et donc, m\u00eame s\u2019il faut minorer ce chiffre pour tenir compte du fait qu\u2019il peut y avoir plusieurs \u00e9l\u00e8ves atteints dans une m\u00eame classe, on aboutit \u00e0 l\u2019id\u00e9e qu\u2019il faudra, au moins tant que la circulation du virus n\u2019aura pas significativement baiss\u00e9, s\u2019attendre \u00e0 avoir un cinqui\u00e8me des classes ferm\u00e9es pour cause de Covid&nbsp;!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce petit calcul rappelle ce que disent, depuis des mois, toutes les semaines, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.santepubliquefrance.fr\/maladies-et-traumatismes\/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires\/infection-a-coronavirus\/documents\/bulletin-national\/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-du-22-avril-2021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">les notes<\/a> de Sant\u00e9 publique France&nbsp;: le niveau de circulation du virus est tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9&nbsp;! Ce n\u2019est pas du tout le moment de baisser la garde. Y compris pour ceux qui ont re\u00e7u une premi\u00e8re dose de vaccin. Celle-ci fait baisser le risque d\u2019hospitalisation de 80%, ce qui est consid\u00e9rable. Mais si ce risque est divis\u00e9 par 5, il n\u2019en reste pas moins r\u00e9el, d\u2019autant que le virus est partout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La logique scientifique conduit de nombreux \u00e9pid\u00e9miologistes \u00e0 r\u00e9clamer des mesures fortes pour faire baisser la circulation du virus. Force est d\u2019observer que<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/international\/article\/2021\/04\/25\/covid-19-dans-le-monde-la-belgique-et-les-pays-bas-contraints-d-alleger-le-confinement-malgre-une-stagnation-a-haut-niveau_6077979_3210.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> la pression sociale<\/a> n\u2019est pas du tout dans ce sens-l\u00e0. On observera d\u2019ailleurs que si les Fran\u00e7ais avaient tous observ\u00e9 strictement les r\u00e8gles de pr\u00e9caution (ne pas recevoir en lieu clos, porter le masque, a\u00e9rer, garder les distances\u2026), l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie serait derri\u00e8re nous depuis longtemps&nbsp;!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeudi 22, le Premier ministre donnait une conf\u00e9rence de presse centr\u00e9e sur le confinement et sa sortie. Veran, Darmanin et Blanquer sont aussi intervenus. Le ministre de l\u2019\u00c9ducation nationale a expliqu\u00e9 que de tr\u00e8s nombreux tests salivaires seraient mis \u00e0 la disposition des \u00e9tablissements et que les classes seraient ferm\u00e9es&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3854,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La calculatrice vaporeuse de Jean-Michel Blanquer - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La calculatrice vaporeuse de Jean-Michel Blanquer - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jeudi 22, le Premier ministre donnait une conf\u00e9rence de presse centr\u00e9e sur le confinement et sa sortie. Veran, Darmanin et Blanquer sont aussi intervenus. Le ministre de l\u2019\u00c9ducation nationale a expliqu\u00e9 que de tr\u00e8s nombreux tests salivaires seraient mis \u00e0 la disposition des \u00e9tablissements et que les classes seraient ferm\u00e9es&#8230;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-04-26T08:00:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-04-26T08:00:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/JM-Blanquer-La-Voix-du-Nord.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1350\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"759\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"G\u00e9rard Bardier\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"G\u00e9rard Bardier\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"G\u00e9rard Bardier\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/#\/schema\/person\/5650e206a121f68c6f5e76379bccfbc4\"},\"headline\":\"La calculatrice vaporeuse de Jean-Michel Blanquer\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-04-26T08:00:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-04-26T08:00:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/\"},\"wordCount\":549,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/JM-Blanquer-La-Voix-du-Nord.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Analyses\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/26\/la-calculatrice-vaporeuse-de-jean-michel-blanquer\/\",\"name\":\"La calculatrice vaporeuse de Jean-Michel Blanquer - 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