{"id":3643,"date":"2021-03-31T08:35:39","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T06:35:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=3643"},"modified":"2022-02-15T09:04:40","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T08:04:40","slug":"la-surmortalite-covid-reelle-dans-le-monde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/31\/la-surmortalite-covid-reelle-dans-le-monde\/","title":{"rendered":"La surmortalit\u00e9 Covid r\u00e9elle dans le monde"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

La mani\u00e8re de compter les d\u00e9c\u00e8s dus au Covid a \u00e9t\u00e9 variable selon les pays. A un point tel qu\u2019elle fausse les comparaisons mondiales. Par exemple, la Russie a selon les chiffres officiels deux fois moins de d\u00e9c\u00e8s Covid par millions d\u2019habitants que la France alors qu\u2019en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 sa surmortalit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 deux fois plus forte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un moyen simple d\u2019\u00e9valuer la mortalit\u00e9 Covid est de comparer la mortalit\u00e9 totale d\u2019un pays 2020 \u00e0 celle de 2019. La surmortalit\u00e9 ainsi calcul\u00e9e devrait \u00eatre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s \u00e9gale \u00e0 la mortalit\u00e9 Covid. C\u2019est ce qu\u2019on observe en France, \u00e0 quelques milliers pr\u00e8s. On peut affiner l\u2019estimation pour tenir compte des dynamiques d\u2019\u00e9volution de la population et d\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie. C\u2019est ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait<\/a> par France Strat\u00e9gie. Le but \u00e9tait probablement d’am\u00e9liorer l’image des r\u00e9sultats fran\u00e7ais, mais le travail a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieusement d’un point de vue m\u00e9thodologique<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les chercheurs ont donc estim\u00e9 la surmortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9elle en comparant avec la mortalit\u00e9 des 4 ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes et en tenant compte de la dynamique d\u2019\u00e9volution. Il est \u00e0 noter que dans la plupart des cas la sous-estimation officielle de la sur mortalit\u00e9 ne vient pas d\u2019une volont\u00e9 de tricher, mais simplement d\u2019un syst\u00e8me de comptage inadapt\u00e9. Le tableau suivant donne le r\u00e9sultat de cette \u00e9tude par grandes r\u00e9gions. Le premier chiffre donne la mortalit\u00e9 officielle Covid<\/a> sur la p\u00e9riode (c.a.d. jusqu\u2019au 28\/02\/2021), le deuxi\u00e8me la surmortalit\u00e9 totale calcul\u00e9e par les chercheurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Le chiffre entre parenth\u00e8ses dans la deuxi\u00e8me colonne donne le taux de surmortalit\u00e9 par rapport aux ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Les chercheurs consid\u00e8rent que c\u2019est sur ce r\u00e9sultat qu\u2019il faut comparer les pays. La derni\u00e8re colonne donne le rapport entre les chiffres officiels et la surmortalit\u00e9 calcul\u00e9e par les chercheurs. Le fait qu\u2019on ait plus de 100 % en France s\u2019explique par une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse de la mortalit\u00e9 classique (par exemple les accidents de la route ou les morts de la grippe).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans les pays de l\u2019ex-URSS, la surmortalit\u00e9 calcul\u00e9e est 5 fois plus forte que la mortalit\u00e9 COVID officielle, ce qui montre l\u2019importance de la sous-estimation. France Strat\u00e9gie estime pourtant que ces pays n\u2019ont pas cherch\u00e9 \u00e0 tricher, car ils ont publi\u00e9 par ailleurs leurs chiffres r\u00e9els de d\u00e9c\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5 pays ont un ratio sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 100 % (voir le tableau 2 page 19) : Isra\u00ebl, Chili, Luxembourg, France et Belgique. 4 pays sont entre 90 et 100 % : le Royaume Uni, la Su\u00e8de, la Colombie et le Liechtenstein.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La moyenne pour les 71 pays \u00e9tudi\u00e9s est de 54,1 %. Dit autrement, la surmortalit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 en moyenne deux fois plus forte que celle affich\u00e9e dans les tableaux de l\u2019OMS. Et probablement encore plus, dans la mesure o\u00f9 la sous-estimation doit \u00eatre plus forte pour les pays pour lesquelles France Strat\u00e9gie n\u2019a pas assez d\u2019informations pour conclure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019\u00c9gypte est un des pays qui a le ratio de d\u00e9claration le plus faible (8,1%). Alors qu\u2019elle apparait dans les documents officiels, avoir 12 fois moins de mortalit\u00e9 par million d\u2019habitants que la France, sa surmortalit\u00e9 calcul\u00e9e est 60 % plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que celle de la France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les chercheurs n\u2019ont pas pu \u00e9tudier la situation de la plupart des pays d\u2019Afrique, dont le syst\u00e8me administratif n\u2019est pas assez performant pour donner des \u00e9l\u00e9ments fiables, du moins dans un temps court. Il n\u2019y a pas non plus de r\u00e9sultats pour la Chine, l\u2019Inde ou le Br\u00e9sil. On soup\u00e7onne la Chine et le Br\u00e9sil d\u2019avoir volontairement trich\u00e9, alors que la sous-estimation en Inde est probablement involontaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La m\u00e9thode a am\u00e9lior\u00e9 la position des pays europ\u00e9ens dans les classements et de la France parmi les pays europ\u00e9ens.  Cependant, il faut avoir conscience qu\u2019il s\u2019agit de r\u00e9sultats \u00e0 fin janvier, et que ceux -ci vont encore \u00e9voluer avec la suite de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. Par ailleurs, il suffit de comparer chez nous la r\u00e9gion Bretagne et la r\u00e9gion Grand Est pour comprendre qu\u2019on ne peut pas, \u00e0 partir de ces comparaisons, tirer beaucoup de conclusions sur la pertinence des politiques suivies\u2026A part probablement pour les pays qui n\u2019ont pas eu de surmortalit\u00e9, dans l\u2019Est asiatique et la zone Pacifique.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La mani\u00e8re de compter les d\u00e9c\u00e8s dus au Covid a \u00e9t\u00e9 variable selon les pays. A un point tel qu\u2019elle fausse les comparaisons mondiales. Par exemple, la Russie a selon les chiffres officiels deux fois moins de d\u00e9c\u00e8s Covid par millions d\u2019habitants que la France alors qu\u2019en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 sa surmortalit\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nLa surmortalit\u00e9 Covid r\u00e9elle dans le monde - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/31\/la-surmortalite-covid-reelle-dans-le-monde\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La surmortalit\u00e9 Covid r\u00e9elle dans le monde - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La mani\u00e8re de compter les d\u00e9c\u00e8s dus au Covid a \u00e9t\u00e9 variable selon les pays. 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