{"id":3614,"date":"2021-03-26T16:07:55","date_gmt":"2021-03-26T15:07:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=3614"},"modified":"2021-03-26T16:07:56","modified_gmt":"2021-03-26T15:07:56","slug":"retour-a-la-normale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/26\/retour-a-la-normale\/","title":{"rendered":"Retour \u00e0 la normale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cette \u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid \u00e9puise nos patiences. Tout le monde attend la fin du tunnel, celle que le Premier ministre lui a fait miroiter, sans vraiment pr\u00e9ciser l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance. Mais rien ne nous emp\u00eache de chercher \u00e0 \u00e9clairer l\u2019avenir !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les vaccinations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le gouvernement a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de vacciner en premier les plus fragiles et le personnel soignant, soit 10 millions de personnes, dont un peu plus de la moiti\u00e9 sont des plus de 75 ans. Plus de la moiti\u00e9 de ces derniers ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 re\u00e7u une premi\u00e8re dose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La simulation ci-dessous s\u2019appuie sur la situation au 22 mars<\/a>, avec une hypoth\u00e8se<\/strong> de livraison <\/a>de 10 millions de doses par mois (12 en juin) et ne tient pas compte d\u2019\u00e9ventuelles livraisons<\/a> du vaccin de Johnson et Johnson. On fait l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se qu\u2019au maximum 80% de la tranche d\u2019\u00e2ge est vaccin\u00e9e (r\u00e9sultat observ\u00e9 dans les Ehpad), les 20 % restants correspondants aux personnes ayant des contre-indications, refusant le vaccin ou ayant d\u00e9j\u00e0 eu le Covid r\u00e9cemment. En fonction des param\u00e8tres connus, une simulation de l’\u00e9volution de la protection en fonction de l’\u00e2ge donne le tableau suivant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Classe d’\u00e2ge<\/th>Effectifs
en millions<\/th>		% prot\u00e9g\u00e9s
au 1\/04<\/th>		% prot\u00e9g\u00e9s
au 1\/05<\/th>		% prot\u00e9g\u00e9s<\/strong>
au 1\/0<\/strong>6<\/th>		% prot\u00e9g\u00e9s<\/strong>
au 1\/0<\/strong>7<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
+ 75 ans<\/td>6,2<\/td>50<\/td>80<\/td>80<\/td>80<\/td><\/tr>
65\/74<\/td>7,2<\/td>15<\/td>46<\/td>80<\/td>80<\/td><\/tr>
50\/64<\/td>12,5<\/td>11<\/td>17<\/td>33<\/td>80<\/td><\/tr>
30\/49<\/td>16,3<\/td>3,5<\/td>4<\/td>6<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Impact sur la circulation du virus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sur 207 147 personnes test\u00e9es positives <\/a>dans la semaine du 14 au 20 mars, 17 172 ont plus de 70 ans et 53 074 plus de 50 ans, soit respectivement 8,3% et 25,6 % du total des personnes positives. M\u00eame si on admet que les personnes vaccin\u00e9es ne transmettent pas le virus (ce qui est tr\u00e8s probable, mais pas certain), la vaccination des plus de 50 ans n\u2019aura gu\u00e8re d\u2019effet sur la circulation du virus. Seule la vaccination des 20\/49 ans aura un r\u00e9el effet (s\u2019ils acceptent de se vacciner en nombre suffisant) : la vaccination n\u2019aura donc d\u2019effet r\u00e9el sur la circulation du virus que vers la fin de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact sur la mortalit\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On l\u2019a su tr\u00e8s vite, la mortalit\u00e9 est tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendante de l\u2019\u00e2ge<\/a> et les donn\u00e9es issues de l’Imperial College de Londres illustrent bien la situation que nous connaissons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tranche d’\u00e2ge<\/th>75 et +<\/th>65 ->74<\/th>50->64<\/strong><\/th>30->49<\/th>0->29<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Taux de mortalit\u00e9<\/td>7%<\/td>1,9%<\/td>0,64%<\/td>0,14%<\/td>0,02%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Si les contaminations sont uniformes sur les 42 millions de plus de 30 ans, le taux de mortalit\u00e9 moyen est de 1,6 % environ. Elle n\u2019est que de 0,67 % pour les 30\/74 ans, et de 0,35 % pour les 30\/64 ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On le comprend, la mortalit\u00e9 devrait nettement baisser avec les vaccinations, \u00e0 incidence totale constante. Cette baisse devrait se constater \u00e0 court terme et \u00eatre manifeste d\u00e8s la fin avril, pour continuer ensuite. Une question demeure : qu\u2019en sera-t-il pour la minorit\u00e9 de personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es qui ne seront pas vaccin\u00e9es ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact sur les h\u00f4pitaux<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les statistiques compil\u00e9es par Covid Tracker<\/a> nous donnent le nombre de personnes hospitalis\u00e9es Covid, par tranche d\u2019\u00e2ges, d\u00e9but mars et au 24 mars, en milliers :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/th>0-19<\/th>20-29<\/th>30-39<\/th>40-49<\/th>50-59<\/th>60-69<\/th>70-79<\/th>80-89<\/th>90et+<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
01\/03<\/td>0,1<\/td>0,2<\/td>0,4<\/td>0,9<\/td>2,1<\/td>4<\/td>6<\/td>8<\/td>3,5<\/td><\/tr>
24\/03<\/td>0,1<\/td>0,3<\/td>0,6<\/td>1,2<\/td>2,8<\/td>4,8<\/td>6,3<\/td>7<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Les moins de 50 ans ne repr\u00e9sentent que moins de 10 % des hospitalisations, bien que leur nombre ait notablement augment\u00e9 depuis le d\u00e9but du mois. Les plus de 80 ans sont moins nombreux, du fait des vaccinations en cours, et leur part passe de 46 \u00e0 38 % d\u2019un total qui a augment\u00e9 d\u2019un millier de patients. Fin mai, quand les plus de 75 ans auront \u00e9t\u00e9 vaccin\u00e9s, ainsi qu\u2019une moiti\u00e9 des 65\/74 ans, la pression sur l\u2019h\u00f4pital devrait avoir fortement diminu\u00e9 (au moins du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des entr\u00e9es), a fortiori fin juin. Sauf s\u2019il y a beaucoup de refus de vaccination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La situation en r\u00e9animation est un peu diff\u00e9rente, puisqu\u2019on n\u2019y trouve que peu les plus \u00e2g\u00e9s, ceux en train d\u2019\u00eatre vaccin\u00e9s. Mais le mouvement sera le m\u00eame avec toutefois environ un mois de d\u00e9calage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quelle circulation du virus ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le virus circule \u00e0 un niveau tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 : si l\u2019on tient compte des asymptomatiques non test\u00e9s, il y a probablement 1% de la population francilienne qui est contamin\u00e9e chaque semaine actuellement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plusieurs inconnues demeurent : quelle proportion de fran\u00e7ais accepteront de se faire vacciner ?  Quelle proportion attendra d\u2019\u00eatre vaccin\u00e9e avant de baisser la garde dans les comportements sociaux ? Les mesures prises r\u00e9cemment seront-elles efficaces ? le gouvernement en prendra t-il d\u2019autres ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On peut ainsi envisager quatre suites des \u00e9v\u00e9nements, parmi d\u2019autres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Le niveau de circulation du virus reste tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9, avec progressivement un remplacement de cas chez les jeunes et une diminution chez les plus \u00e2g\u00e9s. Une immunit\u00e9 collective se construit au bout de quelques mois, par le cumul des vaccinations et des anciens malades. Entre-temps, on a accumul\u00e9 les d\u00e9c\u00e8s, les Covid longs.<\/li>
  2. Le niveau de circulation du virus baisse clairement du fait des mesures gouvernementales, de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la m\u00e9t\u00e9o et des vaccinations. Le virus continue \u00e0 circuler longtemps, tant que l\u2019immunit\u00e9 collective n\u2019est pas acquise et touche les seuls non-vaccin\u00e9s. Si les Fran\u00e7ais se vaccinent en masse, ils sont nombreux \u00e0 \u00e9chapper au Covid et \u00e0 ses cons\u00e9quences.<\/li>
  3. La vaccination r\u00e9duit drastiquement la pression sur les h\u00f4pitaux au d\u00e9but de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 et il existe une forte pression pour lever les restrictions. Les comportements induits provoquent une flamb\u00e9e de malades chez les jeunes (dont certains sont hospitalis\u00e9s, voire d\u00e9c\u00e8dent), mais celle-ci dure assez peu (2 ou 3 mois ?)<\/li>
  4. De nouveaux variants apparaissent qui \u00e9chappent aux vaccins ou \u00e0 certains d\u2019entre eux, et on repart pour un tour\u2026<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Il est difficile de faire des pronostics entre ces sc\u00e9narios, mais il me semble que le 3 soit le plus probable. On peut le craindre du moins.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Cette \u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid \u00e9puise nos patiences. Tout le monde attend la fin du tunnel, celle que le Premier ministre lui a fait miroiter, sans vraiment pr\u00e9ciser l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance. Mais rien ne nous emp\u00eache de chercher \u00e0 \u00e9clairer l\u2019avenir ! Les vaccinations Le gouvernement a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de vacciner en premier les plus…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nRetour \u00e0 la normale - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/26\/retour-a-la-normale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retour \u00e0 la normale - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cette \u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid \u00e9puise nos patiences. Tout le monde attend la fin du tunnel, celle que le Premier ministre lui a fait miroiter, sans vraiment pr\u00e9ciser l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance. Mais rien ne nous emp\u00eache de chercher \u00e0 \u00e9clairer l\u2019avenir ! 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