{"id":3426,"date":"2021-03-02T07:03:02","date_gmt":"2021-03-02T06:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=3426"},"modified":"2021-03-02T07:03:03","modified_gmt":"2021-03-02T06:03:03","slug":"age-covid-et-vaccination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/02\/age-covid-et-vaccination\/","title":{"rendered":"Age, Covid et vaccination"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Alors que le nombre de cas Covid ne cesse d\u2019augmenter sous la pression du variant anglais, la vaccination des plus \u00e2g\u00e9s modifie nettement la situation des h\u00f4pitaux<\/p>\n\n\n\n
R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Alors que l\u2019incidence tous \u00e2ges augmente depuis deux mois, elle a fortement diminu\u00e9 chez les plus de 80 ans. Cela se traduit par une diminution de la mortalit\u00e9 et de la pr\u00e9sence de ces personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es parmi les hospitalis\u00e9s. L\u2019impact est beaucoup plus faible en r\u00e9animation, o\u00f9 la proportion des plus \u00e2g\u00e9s a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 faible. Les moins de 60 ans \u00e9tant dans tous les cas assez peu repr\u00e9sent\u00e9s, la question de la saturation des h\u00f4pitaux (et en particulier des services de r\u00e9animation) se joue (et se jouera) de plus en plus sur la tranche des 60\/79 ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Incidence par \u00e2ge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Le tableau ci-dessous donne par tranches d\u2019\u00e2ges l\u2019\u00e9volution dans le temps des taux d\u2019incidence moyens en France. En deux mois (semaine du 17 au 23 d\u00e9cembre vs semaine du 18 au 24 f\u00e9vrier), l\u2019incidence tous \u00e2ges a augment\u00e9 de 42%. Mais celle des plus de 90 ans a baiss\u00e9 de 36 %, et celle des 80\/89 ans de 17%. La vaccination a \u00e9videmment jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le important dans cette baisse. On observe en revanche une hausse de 21% chez les 70\/79 ans, et de 35% chez les 60\/69 ans. La hausse est plus forte pour toutes les tranches d\u2019\u00e2ge en dessous de 60 ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Impact sur les d\u00e9c\u00e8s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
La mortalit\u00e9 Covid varie fortement en fonction de l\u2019\u00e2ge. Le graphique ci-contre montre que les moins de 60 ans ont toujours repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 une faible part des d\u00e9c\u00e8s (moins de 5% depuis que les traitements se sont affin\u00e9s), alors que les plus de 80 ans en repr\u00e9sentaient environ 60 % en fin 2020. Avec la vaccination des plus fragiles, on voit assez nettement baisser la mortalit\u00e9 des plus \u00e2g\u00e9s. On peut imaginer que d\u2019ici un mois, le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s de plus de 80 ans passera en dessous de celui des 60\/79 ans (qui diminue aussi du fait de la vaccination des 75\/79 ans). Sauf flamb\u00e9e de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, les 65\/74 ans commen\u00e7ant \u00e0 \u00eatre vaccin\u00e9 en avril, la mortalit\u00e9 Covid est appel\u00e9e \u00e0 baisser tr\u00e8s nettement dans les prochains mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Impact sur les hospitalisations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
On observe depuis le d\u00e9but du mois une baisse des hospitalisations des plus de 80 ans, qui repr\u00e9sentent encore la tranche d\u2019\u00e2ge la plus repr\u00e9sent\u00e9e. Il y a aussi une baisse chez les 60\/79 ans, malgr\u00e9 la hausse du taux d\u2019incidence (ou parce qu\u2019elle n\u2019a pas encore impact\u00e9 les hospitalisations). La part des moins de 60 ans est cette fois ci de l\u2019ordre de 10 %. On peut s\u2019attendre dans le mois qui vient \u00e0 ce que les patients de plus de 80 ans deviennent moins nombreux que ceux de 60\/ 79 ans et que le total soit assez stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Impact sur les services de r\u00e9animation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
La situation est tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente dans les service de r\u00e9animation\u00a0: les plus \u00e2g\u00e9s sont trop fragiles pour supporter les traitements. Ils sont m\u00eame moins nombreux dans ces services que les moins de 60 ans. Ceux-ci sont de plus en plus nombreux et repr\u00e9sentent actuellement environ 20 % des lits, les 60\/79 ans en occupant environ les deux tiers. Le nombre de 60\/79 ans semble stable depuis un mois\u00a0: c\u2019est sur eux que se jouera la saturation ou non des services en mars et en avril, sachant que la vaccination ne devrait commencer \u00e0 faire baisser la pression qu\u2019en mai et surtout en juin. Si l\u2019incidence croit de plus de 15% par semaine, comme on peut le craindre avec le variant anglais, les services seront malgr\u00e9 tout vite d\u00e9bord\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alors que le nombre de cas Covid ne cesse d\u2019augmenter sous la pression du variant anglais, la vaccination des plus \u00e2g\u00e9s modifie nettement la situation des h\u00f4pitaux R\u00e9sum\u00e9 Alors que l\u2019incidence tous \u00e2ges augmente depuis deux mois, elle a fortement diminu\u00e9 chez les plus de 80 ans. Cela se traduit…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\n
Age, Covid et vaccination - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/02\/age-covid-et-vaccination\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Age, Covid et vaccination - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alors que le nombre de cas Covid ne cesse d\u2019augmenter sous la pression du variant anglais, la vaccination des plus \u00e2g\u00e9s modifie nettement la situation des h\u00f4pitaux R\u00e9sum\u00e9 Alors que l\u2019incidence tous \u00e2ges augmente depuis deux mois, elle a fortement diminu\u00e9 chez les plus de 80 ans. 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