{"id":2412,"date":"2020-10-30T19:45:40","date_gmt":"2020-10-30T18:45:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=2412"},"modified":"2020-10-30T19:45:41","modified_gmt":"2020-10-30T18:45:41","slug":"confinement-jusqua-quand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/30\/confinement-jusqua-quand\/","title":{"rendered":"Confinement : jusqu’\u00e0 quand?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Il ne se trouve probablement personne pour se r\u00e9jouir de ce nouveau confinement. D\u2019autant plus qu\u2019il y a tout lieu de croire qu\u2019il va durer. Dans son allocution, E. Macron a fix\u00e9 un objectif : descendre \u00e0 5 000 cas par jour, une situation qui, d\u2019apr\u00e8s lui, serait g\u00e9rable. Il a \u00e9galement affirm\u00e9 qu\u2019on est actuellement \u00e0 40 000 cas par jour. Les malades identifi\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 contamin\u00e9s il y a plusieurs jours. Donc, le nombre de cas va d\u2019abord continuer \u00e0 augmenter, quelle que soit l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 des mesures prises. On sera \u00e0 60 000 cas quotidien dans 8 jours, et le pic ne sera peut-\u00eatre pas encore atteint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hypoth\u00e8se optimiste<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ensuite, sous la meilleure hypoth\u00e8se, le nombre de cas va baisser au m\u00eame rythme qu\u2019il l\u2019avait fait en avril, soit un coefficient de reproduction qui pourrait descendre au plus bas \u00e0 0,5, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire \u00e0 une division par 2 chaque semaine. Cela nous m\u00e8ne \u00e0 la premi\u00e8re semaine de d\u00e9cembre. Et c\u2019est un calcul tr\u00e8s optimiste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le taux de reproduction n\u2019a semble-t-il pas vari\u00e9 d\u2019un pouce depuis la mi-juillet, malgr\u00e9 les mesures prises successivement, y compris le couvre-feu d\u00e9cid\u00e9 il y a deux semaines. La lassitude sur le sujet qu\u2019on peut sentir dans beaucoup de conversations explique probablement que les comportements peinent \u00e0 changer. On se r\u00e9volte encore quand un enseignant ou une femme en pri\u00e8re se font assassiner sauvagement, mais on semble incapable de r\u00e9agir quand le nombre quotidien de d\u00e9c\u00e8s Covid d\u00e9passe la centaine (on en est m\u00eame \u00e0 plus de 200 en moyenne sur les 7 derniers jours).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hypoth\u00e8se plus pessimiste<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Une hypoth\u00e8se moins optimiste que celle-ci-dessus serait que le taux de reproduction ne diminue gu\u00e8re les premiers jours du confinement, et que seule l\u2019annonce r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e de milliers de d\u00e9c\u00e8s hebdomadaires et d\u2019h\u00f4pitaux d\u00e9bord\u00e9es fasse r\u00e9agir les Fran\u00e7ais, pour arriver \u00e0 un taux de reproduction inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 1, mais sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce que nous avions connu en avril, par exemple 0,8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avec un tel taux, il faut trois semaines pour diviser par deux le nombre de cas. Il faut attendre 14 semaines de confinement pour descendre \u00e0 5 000 cas quotidiens, ce qui nous m\u00e8ne \u00e0 d\u00e9but f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si on pr\u00e9f\u00e8re sortir du confinement d\u00e9but d\u00e9cembre que d\u00e9but f\u00e9vrier, il faut se d\u00e9cider \u00e0 appliquer les r\u00e8gles les plus prudentes et le plus rigoureusement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e9decine de catastrophe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ce jeudi, Julie Oudet, m\u00e9decin urgentiste explique dans une note <\/a>qui m\u00e9rite vraiment d\u2019\u00eatre lue, qu\u2019on est dans une situation de catastrophe, et qu\u2019on doit donc pratiquer une m\u00e9decine de catastrophe. Elle s’y exprime avec le franc parler d’une personne sur la br\u00e8che et vivant depuis des mois sous pression. Pour elle, la catastrophe n’exprime pas un jugement de valeur, ni une crainte; c’est une situation, une affaire de comportement. Quelques extraits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je suis une convaincue de la m\u00e9decine de catastrophe. Y\u2019a un truc en m\u00e9decine de catastrophe. Tu peux ne pas appr\u00e9cier le chef. Tu peux te dire int\u00e9rieurement que tu aurais fait diff\u00e9remment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Si tu veux que \u00e7a marche et \u00e9viter que des gens meurent, il faut faire ce qu\u2019il d\u00e9cide. Sinon c\u2019est 1) vain 2) pire, bien pire.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Nos dirigeants sont loin d\u2019\u00eatre mes copains (euph\u00e9misme). Si je veux sauver mon cul et le v\u00f4tre au passage je vais respecter leurs d\u00e9cisions. Et clairement je suis ravie de ne pas \u00eatre \u00e0 leur place.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Ce qui diminue le risque de contamination par a\u00e9rosol c\u2019est :
– la distanciation
– le port g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 de masques
– a\u00e9rer, a\u00e9rer, a\u00e9rer.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab\u00a0Par piti\u00e9, faites-le!\u00a0\u00bb, dit-elle pour conclure son long fil Twitter mi coup de gueule mi confidence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Il ne se trouve probablement personne pour se r\u00e9jouir de ce nouveau confinement. D\u2019autant plus qu\u2019il y a tout lieu de croire qu\u2019il va durer. Dans son allocution, E. Macron a fix\u00e9 un objectif : descendre \u00e0 5 000 cas par jour, une situation qui, d\u2019apr\u00e8s lui, serait g\u00e9rable. Il a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":2420,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nConfinement : jusqu'\u00e0 quand? - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/30\/confinement-jusqua-quand\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Confinement : jusqu'\u00e0 quand? - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Il ne se trouve probablement personne pour se r\u00e9jouir de ce nouveau confinement. 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