{"id":2237,"date":"2020-10-21T08:21:26","date_gmt":"2020-10-21T06:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=2237"},"modified":"2020-11-02T17:32:32","modified_gmt":"2020-11-02T16:32:32","slug":"presidentielles-americaines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bien que les sondages donnent Joe Biden largement \u00e9lu devant Donald Trump, la prudence reste de rigueur pour beaucoup de Fran\u00e7ais. Ils savent qu\u2019Hillary Clinton avait r\u00e9uni pr\u00e8s de 3 millions de voix de plus que D. Trump, mais que le syst\u00e8me particulier du vote par \u00c9tat a donn\u00e9 la victoire \u00e0 ce dernier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2016<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour comprendre cette situation, il faut se souvenir que le pr\u00e9sident des \u00c9tats-Unis est \u00e9lu,  non pas directement par la population tout enti\u00e8re, mais par des repr\u00e9sentants \u00e9lus dans chacun des \u00c9tats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les citoyens am\u00e9ricains \u00e9lisent leur pr\u00e9sident au suffrage universel indirect. Lors de ce scrutin qui d\u00e9signe les grands \u00e9lecteurs, la liste arriv\u00e9e en t\u00eate rafle toutes les voix de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le nombre de grands \u00e9lecteurs dont dispose chacun des cinquante \u00c9tats correspond au nombre d&rsquo;\u00e9lus au Congr\u00e8s de Washington : soit deux s\u00e9nateurs et un nombre de d\u00e9put\u00e9s proportionnel au nombre d&rsquo;habitants de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Ce syst\u00e8me survalorise donc un peu les suffrages des plus petits \u00c9tats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les grands \u00e9lecteurs sont au nombre de 538 au total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour analyser les enjeux, regroupons les \u00c9tats selon le r\u00e9sultat de la pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2016 (entre parenth\u00e8se le nombre de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00c9tat).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 Hillary Clinton avait au moins 10 % d\u2019avance sur D. Trump :<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Californie (55)<\/li><li>Connecticut (7)<\/li><li>Delaware (3)<\/li><li>Washington D.C. (3)<\/li><li>Hawa\u00ef (3)<\/li><li>Illinois (20)<\/li><li>Maryland (10)<\/li><li>Massachusetts (11)<\/li><li>New Jersey (14)<\/li><li>New York (29)<\/li><li>Oregon (7)<\/li><li>Rhode Island (4)<\/li><li>Vermont (3)<\/li><li>Washington (8)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 13 \u00c9tats (+ Washington D.C.) et 177 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 H. Clinton avait entre 5 et 10 % d\u2019avance sur D Trump<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Nouveau Mexique (5)<\/li><li>Virginie (13)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 2 \u00c9tats et 18 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 H Clinton distan\u00e7ait D Trump de moins de 5 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Colorado (9)<\/li><li>Maine(2)<\/li><li>Minnesota(10)<\/li><li>Nevada (6)<\/li><li>New Hampshire (4)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 5 \u00c9tats et 31 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 D Trump distan\u00e7ait H Clinton de moins de 1 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><span class=\"has-inline-color has-very-dark-gray-color\">Michigan (16)<\/span><\/li><li>Pennsylvanie (20)<\/li><li>Wisconsin (10)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 3 \u00c9tats et 46 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 D<\/strong> <strong>Trump avait entre 1 et 5 % d\u2019avance sur H Clinton<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Arizona (11)<\/li><li>Caroline du Nord (15)<\/li><li>Floride (29)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 3 \u00c9tats et 55 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 D Trump avait entre 5 et 10 % d\u2019avance sur H Clinton<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>G\u00e9orgie (16)<\/li><li>Iowa (6)<\/li><li>Ohio (18)<\/li><li>Texas (36)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 4 \u00c9tats et 76 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c9tats o\u00f9 D Trump avait plus de 10 %<\/strong> <strong>d\u2019avance sur H Clinton<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Alabama (9)<\/li><li>Alaska (3)<\/li><li>Arkansas (6)<\/li><li>Idaho (4)<\/li><li>Indiana (11)<\/li><li>Kansas (6)<\/li><li>Kentucky (8)<\/li><li>Louisiane (8)<\/li><li>Mississipi (6)<\/li><li>Missouri (10)<\/li><li>Montana (3)<\/li><li>Nebraska (2)<\/li><li>Dakota du Nord (3)<\/li><li>Oklahoma (7)<\/li><li>Caroline du Sud (4)<\/li><li>Dakota du Sud (3)<\/li><li>Tennessee (11)<\/li><li>Utah (6)<\/li><li>Virginie occidentale (5)<\/li><li>Wyoming (3)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit 20 \u00c9tats et 118 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analyse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Il y donc 33 \u00c9tats (+ Washington D.C.) pour lesquels l\u2019\u00e9cart est tellement important qu\u2019il est illusoire qu\u2019il puisse \u00eatre combl\u00e9 4 ans apr\u00e8s. Dans beaucoup de ces \u00c9tats, l\u2019\u00e9cart est proche ou sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 30 %. C\u2019est notamment le cas de la Californie. L\u2019\u00e9cart de plus de 4,2 millions de voix dans cet \u00c9tat suffit \u00e0 expliquer qu\u2019Hillary ait perdu en \u00e9tant majoritaire en vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On imagine que les s\u00e9nateurs de ces \u00c9tats vont au parti dominant, ce qui fait 40 s\u00e9nateurs pour les r\u00e9publicains contre 26 pour les d\u00e9mocrates, alors que la population des \u00c9tats r\u00e9publicains est plus faible que celle des \u00c9tats d\u00e9mocrates (voir le nombre de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Il y a trois \u00c9tats o\u00f9 D. Trump a gagn\u00e9 avec moins de 1 % d\u2019\u00e9cart. Si H. Clinton avait gagn\u00e9 ces trois \u00c9tats elle remportait l\u2019\u00e9lection. Avec de tels \u00e9carts, on est largement dans la marge d\u2019incertitude des sondages (il en est de m\u00eame en Floride, o\u00f9 l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e9tait de 1,2 %).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les sondages pour 2020<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Il n\u2019est pas utile de regarder les 33 \u00c9tats o\u00f9 l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e9tait sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 10 % en 2016. Dans les 2 \u00c9tats o\u00f9 H. Clinton avait entre 5 et 10 % d\u2019avance, les sondages donnent aujourd\u2019hui plus de 13 % d\u2019avance \u00e0 J. Biden<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans les 5 \u00c9tats o\u00f9 H. Clinton avait gagn\u00e9 avec moins de 5 % d\u2019avance, l\u2019avance de J. Biden dans les sondages \u00e9tait la suivante au 16 octobre&nbsp;: Colorado (13%), Maine (15%), Minnesota (9%), Nevada (6%), New Hampshire (11%). <br>L\u2019avance de J. Biden dans tous ces \u00c9tats est tr\u00e8s largement sup\u00e9rieure aux marges d\u2019erreur des sondages. Cela signifie que J. Biden devrait conserver tous les \u00c9tats emport\u00e9s par H Clinton<br>Dans les 3 \u00c9tats o\u00f9 D. Trump l\u2019avait emport\u00e9 de moins de 1 %, les sondages donnent l\u2019avance suivante \u00e0 J. Biden&nbsp;: Michigan (8%), Pennsylvanie (7 %), Wisconsin (7 %). L\u00e0 aussi, on est tr\u00e8s largement au-del\u00e0 de la marge d\u2019incertitude des sondages, d\u2019autant plus que ces 3 \u00c9tats sont assez logiquement parmi les plus sond\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La victoire dans ces trois \u00c9tats suffirait \u00e0 J. Biden pour emporter l\u2019\u00e9lection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mais il y a d\u2019autres \u00c9tats que D. Trump peut perdre. <span class=\"has-inline-color has-very-dark-gray-color\">Parmi les 3 \u00c9tats o\u00f9 D. Trump l\u2019a emport\u00e9 par une avance comprise entre 1 et 5 %, les sondages sont en faveur de J. Biden<\/span><a>&nbsp;<\/a>: Arizona (+ 4,8 %), Caroline du Nord (+ 3,1%), Floride (+ 4,1%), pour un total de 55 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>M\u00eame les 4 \u00c9tats o\u00f9 D. Trump l\u2019a emport\u00e9 par une avance comprise entre 5 et 10 % sont disput\u00e9s. On a les sondages suivants&nbsp;: en faveur de J. Biden en G\u00e9orgie (+ 1,2 %), \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9 dans l\u2019Iowa et l\u2019Ohio, en faveur de D. Trump au Texas (+ 1,4 %).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>La date de l\u2019\u00e9lection se rapproche. On ne voit pas ce qui peut changer d\u2019ici l\u00e0. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u2019une part, les sondages sont tr\u00e8s stables depuis 6 mois, et il y a tr\u00e8s peu d\u2019ind\u00e9cis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u2019autre part le vote anticip\u00e9 et le vote par correspondance ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 commenc\u00e9, et ces deux syst\u00e8mes sont majoritairement utilis\u00e9s par les d\u00e9mocrates. Ceux qui ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 vot\u00e9 ne peuvent par d\u00e9finition plus changer d\u2019avis. Dans le Michigan, 1,5 millions d&rsquo;\u00e9lecteurs avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 vot\u00e9 le 20 octobre, alors qu&rsquo;il y a eu 4,8 millions de votants en 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En Caroline du Nord, plus de 1,8 millions d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/electproject.github.io\/Early-Vote-2020G\/NC.html\" target=\"_blank\">avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 vot\u00e9<\/a> le 20 octobre, soit pr\u00e8s de 40 % de ceux qui avaient vot\u00e9 en 2016. Plus de 22 % de ces 1,8 millions de votants n&rsquo;avaient pas vot\u00e9 en 2016. La participation \u00e0 ce scrutin pourrait \u00eatre la plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e pour une pr\u00e9sidentielle depuis 1908.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019incertitude se porte alors sur le S\u00e9nat. Biden devrait l\u2019emporter dans une tr\u00e8s courte majorit\u00e9 des \u00c9tats. Mais rien ne garantit que l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il gagnera les d\u00e9mocrates gagneront aussi le si\u00e8ge de s\u00e9nateur (s&rsquo;il est soumis \u00e0 renouvellement). J. Biden aura tr\u00e8s probablement la majorit\u00e9 au congr\u00e8s mais pourrait se retrouver avec un S\u00e9nat encore r\u00e9publicain&nbsp;: c\u2019est cela qu\u2019il faudra aussi surveiller le 3 novembre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les s\u00e9nateurs sont \u00e9lus pour 6 ans et le S\u00e9nat renouvelable par tiers. Cette ann\u00e9e, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%C3%89lections_s%C3%A9natoriales_am%C3%A9ricaines_de_2020\" target=\"_blank\">35 si\u00e8ges sont en jeu<\/a>. 23 sortants sont r\u00e9publicains : en 2014, les r\u00e9publicains avaient conquis neuf si\u00e8ges d\u00e9mocrates. Les sondages semblent montrer que les d\u00e9mocrates pourraient reprendre  4 ou 5 si\u00e8ges et donc le S\u00e9nat, mais rien n&rsquo;est jou\u00e9 \u00e0 ce niveau : c&rsquo;est ce qu&rsquo;on ne saura que le 4 novembre<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toutes les donn\u00e9es <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_am%C3%A9ricaine_de_2016\" target=\"_blank\">Sur la pr\u00e9sidentielle 2016&nbsp;<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sur les sondages pour 2020&nbsp;<\/a><\/li><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/electproject.github.io\/Early-Vote-2020G\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Sur le vote anticip\u00e9<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Sur le m\u00eame sujet :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D<a href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/11\/02\/derniere-ligne-droite-ou-virage-dangereux\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">erni\u00e8re ligne droite ou virage dangereux ?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bien que les sondages donnent Joe Biden largement \u00e9lu devant Donald Trump, la prudence reste de rigueur pour beaucoup de Fran\u00e7ais. Ils savent qu\u2019Hillary Clinton avait r\u00e9uni pr\u00e8s de 3 millions de voix de plus que D. Trump, mais que le syst\u00e8me particulier du vote par \u00c9tat a donn\u00e9 la&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":2240,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bien que les sondages donnent Joe Biden largement \u00e9lu devant Donald Trump, la prudence reste de rigueur pour beaucoup de Fran\u00e7ais. Ils savent qu\u2019Hillary Clinton avait r\u00e9uni pr\u00e8s de 3 millions de voix de plus que D. Trump, mais que le syst\u00e8me particulier du vote par \u00c9tat a donn\u00e9 la&#8230;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-21T06:21:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-11-02T16:32:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Joe_Biden_2013.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1306\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1779\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"G\u00e9rard Bardier\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"G\u00e9rard Bardier\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"G\u00e9rard Bardier\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/#\/schema\/person\/5650e206a121f68c6f5e76379bccfbc4\"},\"headline\":\"Pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-21T06:21:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-11-02T16:32:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\"},\"wordCount\":1213,\"commentCount\":6,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Joe_Biden_2013.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Analyses\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\",\"name\":\"Pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines - La Gazette\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Joe_Biden_2013.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-21T06:21:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-11-02T16:32:32+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/21\/presidentielles-americaines\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Joe_Biden_2013.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Joe_Biden_2013.jpg\",\"width\":1306,\"height\":1779,\"caption\":\"Official portrait of Vice President Joe Biden in his West Wing Office at the White House, Jan. 10, 2013. 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