{"id":2128,"date":"2020-10-07T09:07:41","date_gmt":"2020-10-07T07:07:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=2128"},"modified":"2020-10-17T19:04:45","modified_gmt":"2020-10-17T17:04:45","slug":"prendre-garde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/10\/07\/prendre-garde\/","title":{"rendered":"Prendre garde"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dans une longue note<\/a>, \u00e9crite le 22 septembre mais parue le 1er<\/sup> octobre, le conseil scientifique Covid-19 fait le point de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie et alerte sur la situation actuelle<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Une situation tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9occupante<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les nombres de cas, d\u2019hospitalisations, de lits occup\u00e9s en r\u00e9animation, de d\u00e9c\u00e8s sont en effet en augmentation constante, en particulier dans les grandes m\u00e9tropoles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour les r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es, la note fait des projections, en faisant varier en plus ou en moins le taux de reproduction observ\u00e9 les semaines pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Olivier V\u00e9ran en a utilis\u00e9 quelques-unes dans sa conf\u00e9rence de presse la semaine derni\u00e8re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Dans les seules r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es, la poursuite de la situation actuelle donnerait entre 5400 et 12400 d\u00e9c\u00e8s du 25 septembre au 1er<\/sup> novembre, sans compter les morts dans les Ehpad. Beaucoup de r\u00e9gions, dont l\u2019Ile de France, verraient 100 % des lits de r\u00e9animations occup\u00e9s par des malades Covid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u2019o\u00f9 viennent les contaminations ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le Conseil scientifique estime, sur la base des \u00e9tudes disponibles, que leur survenue est le plus souvent li\u00e9e \u00e0 des r\u00e9unions familiales ou entre amis. Chez les jeunes (20-40 ans), dont on ne conna\u00eet pas le r\u00f4le pr\u00e9cis dans la contamination des personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es et\/ou vuln\u00e9rables, il semble que les f\u00eates \u00e9tudiantes extra-universitaires et les rencontres dans les bars\/restaurants soient responsables d\u2019un nombre important de contaminations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La population \u00e2g\u00e9e ou \u00e0 risque prend clairement beaucoup de pr\u00e9cautions mais a peu r\u00e9duit ses contacts sociaux, qu’ils soient familiaux ou amicaux).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour quantifier l\u2019effort \u00e0 faire, il faut savoir que pendant le confinement, on avait r\u00e9duit de 80% nos contacts potentiellement infectants (ce qu\u2019il faut pour faire passer le R de 2,9 \u00e0 0.7). Aujourd\u2019hui, le R est remont\u00e9 \u00e0 1,4, ce qui repr\u00e9sente une r\u00e9duction de 52% de ces m\u00eames contacts. C\u2019est bien, mais ce n\u2019est pas suffisant. Pour le faire redescendre \u00e0 1 et stopper la propagation de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, il faudrait que cette r\u00e9duction passe de 52% \u00e0 65%.  Cela repr\u00e9sente un effort suppl\u00e9mentaire, en termes de limitation de nos regroupements familiaux et amicaux, mais qui pourrait avoir un impact consid\u00e9rable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quelles options pour les d\u00e9cideurs ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le comit\u00e9 scientifique a examin\u00e9 quatre options possibles pour le gouvernement. Il a pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 que l\u2019adh\u00e9sion de la population aux mesures \u00e9tait une condition \u00e0 leur efficacit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Option 1<\/strong> : maintien des (seules) mesures actuelles. Cette strat\u00e9gie est d\u00e9crite pour avoir une r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9e mais est d\u00e9conseill\u00e9e par les scientifiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Option 2<\/strong> : des mesures diff\u00e9renci\u00e9es en fonction de risques tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gaux. Dit autrement, laisser les jeunes continuer leur vie et prot\u00e9ger prioritairement les personnes \u00e0 risques. Les mesures sont d\u00e9crites, ainsi que leurs avantages et inconv\u00e9nients. Le probl\u00e8me principal est qu\u2019on ne sait gu\u00e8re isoler la population \u00e0 risques de celle moins fragiles. On risque de s\u2019apercevoir que cela ne marche pas alors qu\u2019il sera trop tard. A noter que le conseil chiffre \u00e0 22 millions les personnes \u00e0 risque, compte tenu de leur \u00e2ge ou leur \u00e9tat de sant\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Option 3<\/strong> : mesures mod\u00e9r\u00e9es suppl\u00e9mentaires, faisant appel \u00e0 l\u2019adh\u00e9sion volontaire. C\u2019est l\u2019option privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e par le conseil. Celui-ci consid\u00e8re qu\u2019elle suppose une concertation avec les acteurs locaux \u00ab dans une logique de gestion des risques proportionn\u00e9e aux situations locales \u00bb. Dans le d\u00e9tail, les mesures suivantes sont propos\u00e9es :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • Une protection renforc\u00e9e des personnes \u00e0 risque de formes graves<\/li>
  • Un plan de protection des Ehpad<\/li>
  • Un recours plus important au t\u00e9l\u00e9travail<\/li>
  • Un meilleur respect des r\u00e8gles (sous peine de fermeture provisoire) des bars et restaurants. Ceux-ci ont \u00e9t\u00e9 identifi\u00e9s comme des lieux de contamination.<\/li>
  • Le nombre de personnes autoris\u00e9es \u00e0 se rassembler peut-\u00eatre r\u00e9duit dans certains territoires<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Les personnes sont fortement invit\u00e9es \u00e0 limiter volontairement le nombre de leurs contacts sociaux au cours d\u2019une p\u00e9riode donn\u00e9e, notamment lors de r\u00e9unions familiales et amicales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Cette option n\u00e9cessite une adh\u00e9sion, et le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant une certaine forme d\u2019obligation pour certaines mesures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Aucune mesure en soi n\u2019est suffisante, c\u2019est l\u2019addition des mesures qui peut avoir un effet significatif.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Cette option a la pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence du conseil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Option 4<\/strong> : nouvelles mesures fortes, potentiellement contraignantes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A ce stade de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, le Conseil scientifique n\u2019envisage pas de proposer l\u2019option 4 au plan national, mais ne peut en exclure son utilisation dans certaines m\u00e9tropoles et bien s\u00fbr en cas de d\u00e9gradation ult\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    En guise de conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    La note ne le dit pas explicitement, mais les chiffres cit\u00e9s le montrent bien : le taux de reproduction a largement \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans le temps en dehors de toutes mesures, du fait de l\u2019\u00e9volution des comportements individuels. La ma\u00eetrise de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie d\u00e9pend du comportement de chacun, pour limiter au maximum les contacts sociaux et rendre ceux qui restent le moins dangereux possible : gestes barri\u00e8res, port du masque, a\u00e9ration fr\u00e9quente des lieux clos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Vous le comprenez, la Gazette n\u2019est pas de ceux qui voient de la noblesse dans le m\u00e9pris des r\u00e8gles communes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Dans une longue note, \u00e9crite le 22 septembre mais parue le 1er octobre, le conseil scientifique Covid-19 fait le point de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie et alerte sur la situation actuelle Une situation tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9occupante Les nombres de cas, d\u2019hospitalisations, de lits occup\u00e9s en r\u00e9animation, de d\u00e9c\u00e8s sont en effet en augmentation constante,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":2130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses","category-sante","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nPrendre garde - 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