{"id":1943,"date":"2020-09-10T09:16:54","date_gmt":"2020-09-10T07:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/?p=1943"},"modified":"2020-09-10T12:08:58","modified_gmt":"2020-09-10T10:08:58","slug":"nouvelle-vague","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/09\/10\/nouvelle-vague\/","title":{"rendered":"Nouvelle vague ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

D\u00e9but juillet, la p\u00e9riode estivale commen\u00e7ait avec le sentiment que le virus qui avait g\u00e2ch\u00e9 notre printemps se faisait rare mais avec un petit doute. Espoir, parce que depuis avril, semaine apr\u00e8s semaine, les indicateurs montraient un recul de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, avec en particulier une baisse du nombre de nouvelles hospitalisations ou d\u2019entr\u00e9es en soins intensifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petit doute parce que le fameux R, celui qui montre le taux de reproduction de la maladie (en pratique, le nombre moyen de personnes contamin\u00e9es par un malade), apr\u00e8s des semaines nettement en dessous de 1, commen\u00e7ait depuis \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la mi-juin \u00e0 s\u2019en rapprocher progressivement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deux mois d\u2019augmentation du nombre de cas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En juillet, R a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter, semaine apr\u00e8s semaine, et il est rapidement devenu \u00e9vident qu\u2019il \u00e9tait pass\u00e9 au-dessus de cette barre de 1 (l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment neutre de la multiplication) : en dessous de 1, le nombre de contamin\u00e9s diminue semaine apr\u00e8s semaine, au-dessus de 1, il augmente au contraire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les optimistes ont voulu croire que ce n\u2019\u00e9tait pas un probl\u00e8me : d\u2019une part on \u00e9tait tr\u00e8s loin de la vitesse observ\u00e9e en mars (triplement chaque semaine), d\u2019autre part, l\u2019augmentation des cas semblait toucher surtout les plus jeunes, pour qui la maladie est tr\u00e8s rarement grave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans son bulletin \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique <\/a>fin ao\u00fbt, Sant\u00e9 Publique France observait cependant un doublement tous les 14 jours. Certes, c\u2019est moins rapide qu\u2019au printemps, ce qui donne plus de temps pour r\u00e9agir, mais si on reste au m\u00eame rythme, le r\u00e9sultat est le m\u00eame : dans deux ou trois mois, les services hospitaliers seront compl\u00e9tement satur\u00e9s !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tr\u00e8s forte augmentation du nombre de cas quotidiens (multipli\u00e9s par plus de 10 depuis mi-juin) a d\u2019abord touch\u00e9 les jeunes adultes, ce qui explique qu\u2019elle a eu peu d\u2019impacts sur le nombre d\u2019hospitalisations ou de d\u00e9c\u00e8s. La part des plus de 60 ans parmi les cas positifs, qui \u00e9tait sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 45 % \u00e0 la mi-mai, n\u2019\u00e9tait plus que de 12% environ fin ao\u00fbt : division par 4 de la part d\u2019un total multipli\u00e9 par plus de 10, on voit que le nombre de cas augmente aussi parmi les plus de 60 ans, mais nettement moins vite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cette situation moins d\u00e9favorable pour les plus \u00e2g\u00e9s semble termin\u00e9e : depuis quelques jours, leur part semble augmenter, alors que le total ne cesse de grossir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saturation des h\u00f4pitaux<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Alors oui, si les fran\u00e7ais ne trouvent pas collectivement le moyen de faire passer le taux de reproduction en dessous de son niveau actuel et en dessous de 1, la deuxi\u00e8me vague de saturation des h\u00f4pitaux va arriver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il y a quelques jours, 9 % des lits de r\u00e9animation \u00e9tait occup\u00e9s par des malades du Covid. Mardi 8 septembre, on est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 10 %, mercredi \u00e0 11% et jeudi \u00e0 12 %. Au rythme actuel, on serait \u00e0 25 % dans quinze jours. Et cette proportion recouvre de grandes diff\u00e9rences entre territoires : il semble qu\u2019on approche la saturation des maintenant dans les h\u00f4pitaux marseillais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alors oui, les gestes barri\u00e8res n\u2019ont jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 plus indispensables\u00a0! Il ne faudra pas s\u2019\u00e9tonner de d\u00e9cisions plus restrictives\u00a0: le Royaume Uni, vient d\u2019interdire les rassemblements de plus de 6 personnes, \u00e0 l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur comme \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur et y compris dans l\u2019espace priv\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P.S. Des explications tr\u00e8s claires dans l’\u00e9mission de C dans l’air de mercredi 9 septembre <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u00e9but juillet, la p\u00e9riode estivale commen\u00e7ait avec le sentiment que le virus qui avait g\u00e2ch\u00e9 notre printemps se faisait rare mais avec un petit doute. Espoir, parce que depuis avril, semaine apr\u00e8s semaine, les indicateurs montraient un recul de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, avec en particulier une baisse du nombre de nouvelles hospitalisations…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analyses","entry","simple"],"yoast_head":"\nNouvelle vague ? - La Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sceaux-lagazette.fr\/index.php\/2020\/09\/10\/nouvelle-vague\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nouvelle vague ? - La Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"D\u00e9but juillet, la p\u00e9riode estivale commen\u00e7ait avec le sentiment que le virus qui avait g\u00e2ch\u00e9 notre printemps se faisait rare mais avec un petit doute. 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